The PP would win the general elections, if held today, with 31.3% of the votes, almost two points less than what it obtained in 2023, according to the latest barometer from the 40dB institute for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. The survey confirms the downward trend of Vox, which falls almost one point in vote estimation in a month, although it remains the party that grows the most since the elections: 5.5%. The PSOE, for its part, remains below 29%, that is, 3.3 points less than the result of the last general elections. Its government partner, Sumar, barely changes the vote estimate from the previous survey, but loses 6.6 percentage points since 2023, when they ran in coalition with Podemos. The survey detects an increase of almost one point for the brand of the ultra agitator Alvise Pérez, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), about to catch up with Podemos.
Read more United States will deploy destroyers, planes, and 15,000 soldiers to escort ships trapped in Hormuz
By blocs, the right and far-right bloc gathers 49.2% of the vote estimate ―51.5% if SALF is added―, while the left (PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos) gathers 36.6%. That is, the advantage of PP and Vox over the progressive forces is almost 13 points. The voting intention of the parties (Junts, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and CC) that supported the investiture of the socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, gathers 7.6% of the votes, half a point more than they summed in 2023.
The survey (2,000 online interviews) was conducted between April 24 and 27. During those days, the bishops publicly showed their rejection of the so-called “national priority” in access to public aid, the clause of the coalition government pacts between PP and Vox that has dominated the political debate in recent weeks. In the period when the survey was conducted, the first queues began to request regularization by undocumented foreigners; in Aldaia (Valencia), two young people were arrested for an alleged hate crime after attacking migrants; the CIS indicated that the Populars have the absolute majority within reach in the Andalusian elections on May 17; and trials continued for two political corruption cases, one affecting the PP (Operation Kitchen), in which former president Mariano Rajoy testified as a witness, and another affecting the PSOE, with the defendants José Luis Ábalos, former minister, and Koldo García, his former advisor. Additionally, the Supreme Court opened a case against Sumar deputy Félix Alonso Cantorné for alleged prevarication. You can consult all the survey data here.
Vote transfers
Vox remains the party with the most loyal voters: almost 88% of its 2023 voters would repeat, although 5.2% of its electorate now opts for SALF and 3% for the PP. The leaks are greater for the Populars, who give up to 13% of their 2023 ballots to Santiago Abascal’s party. The PSOE would lose 5.2% of its voters today in favor of the PP and accumulates more than 12% abstainers and undecided. Sumar barely retains 49.5% of its support from the last general elections: 17.7% would now opt for Podemos and 13.8% for the PSOE. The left-wing coalition accumulates the most abstainers and undecided: 16%. The brand that gains the most voters from abstention is Vox (15.3%).
Voting intention by gender and age
The PSOE leads in female voting intention —data without the demographic correction, known as cocina—, with 25.6%, that is, five points more than the PP (20.5%) and 11.4 ahead of Vox (14.2%). The socialists (22.9%) also lead the Populars (18%) by almost five points among the male electorate. Vox, which denies gender-based violence and attacks what it calls gender policies, obtains 7.5 points more in voting intention among men than among women.
Read more Arbeloa: “It hurts me when all the rivals run more than us”
Sumar records practically the same data among the male electorate (4.6%) and female (4.1%), as does Podemos (2.2% and 2%, respectively).
By age, Vox is the favorite party among young people aged 18 to 24, but the socialists close the gap and are 1.4 points below in voting intention in that group, which is where the PP records its worst data (7.2%) and where there is the greatest disenchantment: the sum of those who declare their intention not to vote or to vote blank or null, along with the undecided, rises to 28.2%.
The PP achieves its best percentages among those over 65 (27.3%), with a thirteen-point advantage over Vox and 3.8 over the PSOE. The socialists record their best data in the 55 to 64 age group (26.6% voting intention).
Read more Vinicius extends the League until the clásico
Vox surpasses the data of Sumar and Podemos combined in all age groups.
