The Government of Daniel Noboa has decreed 15 days of nighttime restrictions for 12 million inhabitants living in nine provinces and four cities, including the capital, as part of its strategy to contain the escalation of violence. The decision, which does not include safe-conducts for productive or tourist sectors, has raised alarms in the business community, which fears a new halt to activity in a country exhausted after years of chained crises.
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The decree establishes limitations on movement during the night between 11:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m., starting May 3, in territories considered critical by the authorities: Guayas, Manabí, Santa Elena, Los Ríos, El Oro, Pichincha, Esmeraldas, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, and Sucumbíos, as well as in the cantons La Maná (Cotopaxi), Las Naves and Echeandía (Bolívar), and La Troncal (Cañar).
This is the second time in just over a month that the Executive imposes mobility restrictions. The first curfew, in March, was applied to four coastal provinces that concentrate almost half of the country’s violent deaths. According to Noboa, the results — a 33% reduction in violence indicators — motivated the extension of the measure to five other provinces.
However, official data on the measure raise doubts about whether it is a sufficient argument. The Ministry of the Interior bulletin reported that during the fifteen days of the March curfew, 1,283 people were apprehended for disobedience, but only five were considered security targets; one of them was murdered days later in prison. Limited media coverage showed raids where, according to intelligence, dangerous criminals were expected, but the houses were empty when the police contingent broke down the doors.
Security analyst Michelle Maffei questions the effectiveness of the measure. “70% of violent deaths occurred at dawn, but criminal groups adapted and changed the schedules to daytime.” According to official data, 90% of violent deaths that occurred during the curfew period were recorded during the daytime. Of 229 homicides in 15 days, 26 occurred during restriction hours.
The absence of exceptions for economic activity has generated immediate rejection. Sectors such as production, commerce, tourism, and transportation warn of significant losses. The Ecuadorian Exporters Federation (Fedexpor) has presented proposals to achieve “coexistence” between productive activities and the security strategies constantly implemented by the Government, but the response remains the same: there will be no exceptions.
“In the first curfew, we managed to contain employment thanks to the rescheduling of shifts, routes, and transportation schedules. This allowed us to meet international commitments and protect perishable products,” explains Xavier Rosero, president of Fedexpor.
Rosero warns about the impact of the measure in March. “Around 85% of our companies faced cost overruns exceeding 20%. Now, with the extended measure, the situation is complicated by external factors: war in the Middle East, lower availability of containers, increased transportation and input costs, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The private export sector invests one million dollars daily in security to protect the production chain against extortion, highway robberies, and drug contamination of containers. After almost five years of crisis, it has managed to map vulnerable points and coordinate strategies with authorities to maintain fluidity from the transport of employees to cargo. “We have perceived that the set of actions we have carried out, in coordination with the authorities, have begun to yield better results,” says Rosero, who believes these results should not be “sacrificed.”
The productive sector warns of economic and criminal risks. “Strengthening the formal economy is key to reducing the space for the illicit economy,” assures Rosero. Analyst Michelle Maffei agrees that limiting the economic capacity of the private sector may encourage part of the legal economy to lend itself to money laundering schemes. Therefore, maintaining operability is not only an economic issue but also a tool to combat organized crime. “Money laundering represents almost half of our economy. Discouraging the legal economy could normalize illicit practices under the premise of security,” adds Maffei.
This will be the seventh curfew decreed by Daniel Noboa since he assumed the presidency in November 2023. Since then, Ecuador has remained under a state of exception for more than 800 days as the main strategy to combat insecurity. Despite the military presence on the streets, last year 9,200 violent deaths were recorded, making it the bloodiest period in the country’s recent history.
