The high energy costs resulting from the new conflict in the Middle East continue to take a toll on Europe. If a few days ago the increase in eurozone inflation in July to 2.9% was confirmed, driven mainly by the energy factor, now it is the trade balance that reflects the geopolitical tensions that have so heavily influenced fossil fuel prices. The result is a negative balance of 21.8 billion euros for the European Union in the second quarter of the year. According to data released by Eurostat this Tuesday, this is the first trade deficit of the Twenty-Seven since the same period in 2023. That is, exactly three years ago and under different but similar circumstances: back then the bloc was still trying to adapt to the impact of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, which had also raised energy product prices.
According to the European statistics office, in the second quarter of 2026, the EU imported goods worth 701.8 billion euros from third countries. The figure is significantly higher than European exports, which amounted to 680 billion.
As in the deficit period experienced by the community bloc between late 2021 and mid-2023, with the largest negative peak in the months following the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2022, the new deficit in the European trade balance in this 2026 of renewed war tensions has been driven by rising energy costs. Thus, the deficit in energy products (meaning Europe imports more than it exports) rose from 71.3 billion euros in the first quarter to 101.1 billion euros in the second quarter, Eurostat details. Following, but much further behind, is the deficit in raw materials (which rose from 7.9 billion at the start of the year to 9.4 billion between April and June) and that of other manufactured goods (which evolved from 8.3 to 9.1 billion).
In contrast, the surplus of chemical products (from 47.1 billion to 54 billion) and food and beverages (from 10.7 to 11.5 billion) increased. Overall, in the second quarter of the year, exports increased by 5.4%; but imports rose by 9.9% compared to the previous quarter. This growth in purchases above that of foreign sales wiped out the trade surplus of 6.7 billion that the bloc had recorded in the first three months of 2026.
The Russian military offensive against Ukraine marked a first turning point in the European trade balance, Eurostat recalls. Between the first quarter of 2021 and that of 2022, the growth of EU imports from the United States, China, and the rest of the world followed a similar trend. But after the start of the war in Ukraine, the EU significantly increased its imports of energy products from the United States. Consequently, the statistics office recalls, EU imports from the United States grew more than imports from China and the rest of the world. Partly because by imposing bans on Russian energy products, purchases across the Atlantic increased.
Despite this, the EU continues to carry a large trade deficit with China, which in 2025 reached a record figure of 359.272 billion euros, 15% more than the previous year. Usually, this imbalance was offset by the positive balance in trade with other parts of the world, especially with the United States, which were favorable to the bloc. But Donald Trump’s return to the White House began to alter that balance and the war in Iran has delivered the final blow.
Since the beginning of last year, Eurostat recalls, the EU’s goods trade surplus has drastically reduced, going from 51 billion euros in the first quarter of 2025 to a deficit of 22 billion euros in the second quarter of 2026. Although many factors explain this change, the main ones revolve around decisions by the Republican leader. First, the trade tensions between the United States and the Twenty-Seven: the prospect of new tariffs initially caused, before the threat became reality, an increase in EU exports in the first quarter of 2025, when they reached a peak. But then there has been a “continuous and progressive” decline in sales, the European statistics office notes, which “contributed significantly to the erosion of the EU trade balance in subsequent quarters.”
Added to this was, this year, the start of the US offensive against Iran which, with the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, caused a rise in energy prices in general. And since Europe consumes more energy than it produces and needs to buy from outside, the increase in import values “has further depressed the community trade balance,” Eurostat summarizes.