The third heat wave of the summer begins, with the worst in the east and south of the Peninsula

The third heat wave so far this scorching summer of 2026 begins this Tuesday, July 21, and will last until Thursday, July 23, according to Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). The good news is that it will not be long ― three days is the minimum for a warm episode to be considered a wave ― nor especially intense ― there are no red warnings, for now ― but it will affect a large part of the peninsular territory and the Balearic Islands. Only the Cantabrian coast and the Canary Islands will be spared from the heat, and the most affected areas “will be the east and south of the Peninsula, where temperatures could occasionally reach or even exceed 44°,” explains Del Campo, a level far from the national heat record, which stands at 47.6°.

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The cause, as detailed by Aemet in its special warning, is the existence of a “blocking pattern” formed by “a stationary DANA northwest of the Iberian Peninsula” and the presence of an anticyclone over North Africa. This configuration is causing the entry of a warm, dry air mass with suspended dust over the southeastern peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which in the coming days will spread over much of the territory.

Also notable, warns Del Campo, “is the fire danger, which will be very high or extreme in most of the territory for most of the week.” Rain will generally be absent, except in parts of the eastern peninsula, especially in the mountains, where storms are expected. And watch out because many will be dry and accompanied by lightning, hail, and very strong wind gusts. Looking ahead to the weekend, the Aemet spokesperson predicts that during Friday and Saturday there will likely be “a widespread drop in temperatures, with a milder environment and more bearable heat,” but a “new thermal rise is expected next week.”

Day by day, after a Monday with already high temperatures in areas of the east, center, and south of the country, this Tuesday there will be a rise in minimum temperatures and thermometers will mark more than 36° in wide areas of the east, center, and south of the Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands; and from 39° to 40°, in Aragon and the interior of Catalonia. As almost always, the worst will be in the Guadalquivir valley and in the southeast, where it can reach 42° and 44°, respectively.

“The heat will again be accompanied by haze and in the eastern peninsula there will be a possibility of dry storms with lightning, very strong winds, and hail,” the expert completes the forecast. On the warning map, 12 communities will be alerted for heat plus Ceuta, with Andalusia, Aragon, Balearic Islands, Castilla-La Mancha (also for storms), Catalonia, Murcia, and the Valencian Community under orange warning, the second most important on a scale of three. In yellow, the lowest level, will be Castilla y León, Galicia (due to rough seas), Madrid, Navarra, La Rioja, and Ceuta.

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Wednesday is expected to see a rise in minimum temperatures inland, so “the night will be very warm in much of the country,” with values from 23 to 25° in the center, the peninsular Mediterranean area, the Balearic Islands, and the Guadalquivir. “It is even likely that cities like Barcelona will not drop below 26 or 27°,” the meteorologist specifies. During the day, Del Campo continues, “temperatures will rise in western Andalusia and in the northern third and the heat will be very intense and widespread, with temperatures almost generally exceeding 36° in the northern peninsula and 38° in the south. In addition, 38 to 40° will be reached or exceeded in wide areas of the east, center, and south and 40 to 42, even locally more, in the southeast and Andalusia.”

Again, there will be haze and dry storms. Twelve communities will be under warning, all for heat: in orange, Andalusia, Aragon, Balearic Islands, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, Madrid, and Murcia and, in yellow, Castilla y León, Extremadura, Navarra, La Rioja, and the Valencian Community.

From Thursday, “uncertainty increases,” laments Del Campo, who considers the most likely scenario is that “intense heat continues in most of Spain, with temperatures generally without major changes or with slight decreases.” There will be, however, “an important exception, the Mediterranean area, especially inland, where there will be a notable rise and the heat will be extreme, as 42 to 44° will be reached in wide areas and even locally more.” For example, Murcia city could reach a not insignificant 45°. Elsewhere, maximums will range from 38 to 40° in the east and south of the peninsula and again there will be haze and dry storms in the eastern peninsula.

From Friday, and thanks to the entry of Atlantic air, “it seems likely that a drop will begin in the western peninsula that would extend on Saturday to the rest of the country.” Despite this clear drop in temperatures, on Friday and Saturday the heat “will still be very intense in the eastern interior of the Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands.”

Saturday will only exceed 34° in the easternmost part of the peninsula, while temperatures “could even be below normal for the season in the west and around normal in the rest.” The respite, however, will be brief: “It is possible that, from next week, temperatures will rise again.”

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