By a narrow margin, but Andalusia has responded with a no to Juan Manuel Moreno’s persistent request for a “sufficient majority” to govern without the “mess” of depending on Vox. Whether he likes it or not, Moreno will have “mess.” Despite his comfortable victory, with more than 18 points over the PSOE, the PP candidate loses five seats and with them the absolute majority, with more than 95% counted. From 58 seats, he drops to 53, below the 55 needed to be invested without requiring approval from any other party. The PSOE, led by the former number two of the Government María Jesús Montero, achieves its worst historical result in the community, dropping from 30 to 28 seats, but its setback is less than what was feared within the socialist ranks in the last week. On a night of strong turnout increase, from 56.1% to 64.7%, left-wing nationalism, embodied by Adelante Andalucía, emerges as an emerging force and a center of resistance in the progressive field, achieving almost 10% of the vote, increasing from two to eight seats and surpassing Por Andalucía by three, the coalition that brings together the historic United Left with Podemos and Movimiento Sumar, which barely saves its parliamentary group by maintaining the five it had, with more than 95% counted.
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May 17 brings the fourth consecutive victory for the PP in the electoral cycle, although it is a bitter victory as it loses the absolute majority in the most populous community in the country. The baron who prides himself on being “moderate” will need Vox. Also for the fourth consecutive time, the right-wing bloc exceeds 50% of the votes. However, the left increases its representation, going from 37 to 41 seats, thanks to the pull of Adelante Andalucía, which quadruples its representation, with more than 95% of the count already completed. In the large southern community, the rightward shift that has taken place in the other three that have held elections since December has not occurred, thanks to the party led by José Ignacio García.
Moreno’s starting position (Barcelona, 56 years old) was different from that of his predecessors in this electoral cycle, María Guardiola in Extremadura, Jorge Azcón in Aragón, and Alfonso Fernández-Mañueco in Castilla y León. The popular candidate was the only one who, according to all polls, had the absolute majority within reach. But, at the same time, he was also the only one who could lose it, because only he had it. And he has lost it, which clouds the balance of his victory, achieved in all provinces: Huelva, Cádiz, Málaga, Granada, Almería, Jaén, Córdoba, and Seville.
The PP’s most centrist baron, the one who keeps repeating the words “moderation” and “serenity,” loses more than two points, stays at 41.5%, and loses five seats. Moreno has obtained more seats than the entire left combined, so abstention from Santiago Abascal’s party would be enough for his investiture. The Andalusian PP leader already needed Vox — on that occasion, their favorable vote along with Ciudadanos, not just their abstention — after the December 2018 elections, when he made concessions on immigration, gender, and memory to gain power. It remains to be seen what he is willing to give now and to what extent it is compatible with his role as a reference of the moderate wing of Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party. Vox has already warned that it wants to impose the “national priority” in access to aid, as it has already achieved in its agreements in Extremadura and Aragón.
If he obtains the necessary support, Moreno will begin his third term at the head of the Junta. If he completes the legislature, he will add more than 11 years in the San Telmo Palace.
The night represents a setback for the PSOE. Elected last February as the party’s secretary general in Andalusia replacing Juan Espadas, who obtained 30 seats in 2022, its candidate, María Jesús Montero (Seville, 60 years old) has not only failed to place the party higher than where the former mayor of Seville left it, but has taken it to a new low. However, it is a floor higher than what was feared within her party. It drops from 30 to 28 seats.
The times when the PSOE dominated Andalusian politics are not history, politically they are prehistory, such has been the speed of decline of a party that barely twenty years ago harvested more than 2 million votes in regional elections and hovered around 50% of the ballots, when now it does not reach 23%, with more than 95% counted. These are the fifth consecutive elections, counting all types of calls, in which the PP beats the PSOE in what was once a socialist stronghold, now a popular stronghold. That said, on a night of defeat, the PSOE at least has the possibility of clinging to the discourse that presents the PP as a party hostage to Vox, since Moreno has lost the absolute majority.
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Although Vox achieves in Andalusia its lowest mark of the four elections in the cycle, with less than 14%, below Extremadura (16.9%), Aragón (17.9%), and Castilla y León (18.9%), the party led in Andalusia by Manuel Gavira (Cádiz, 56 years old) can boast a positive balance for two reasons. The first, because it grows for the fourth consecutive regional election both in votes and seats, although this time it only gains one, going from 14 to 15. The slowdown is confirmed, but it continues growing. The second reason for a positive balance, the most important, is that Vox will be decisive for Moreno’s investiture, as it has been for María Guardiola in Extremadura and Jorge Azcón in Aragón and will be for Alfonso Fernández-Mañueco in Castilla y León. Gavira will thus have a key that Vox already had, along with Ciudadanos, after the December 2018 elections, when the far right burst into institutions with judge Francisco Serrano as the headliner. Vox lost that decisive party status with Macarena Olona in 2022 and now recovers it with Gavira.
Andalusian nationalism takes flight. The event of the night on the left, one of the great shocks to the Andalusian electoral map, is the strong growth of Adelante Andalucía, the Andalusianist party created by former Podemos leader Teresa Rodríguez. Led by José Ignacio García (Jerez de la Frontera, Cádiz, 38 years old), Adelante obtains eight deputies, which provides it with its own group, which nationalism had not had for 18 years, since the collapse of the Andalucista Party.
Moreover, it becomes by far the most voted force of the alternative left, comfortably surpassing Por Andalucía, the coalition that includes IU, Podemos, Movimiento Sumar, Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz, Verdes Equo, Alternativa Republicana, and Alianza Verde. Adelante is strong in Seville and Cádiz with two seats in each place but also expands its presence to all provinces except Almería and Jaén. Its success endorses the trend of the rise to the left of the PSOE of autonomous nationalist forces, disconnected from nationwide organizations. In Cádiz city, Adelante has been the second political force, with nearly 25% of the vote, only behind the PP, with more than 95% counted.
The day is disappointing for Por Andalucía, the coalition led by Antonio Maíllo (Lucena, Córdoba, 59 years old), federal coordinator of IU, which is overtaken by Adelante. However, there is relief in maintaining its five seats and with them its parliamentary group, with more than 95% counted. Losing just one would have meant losing it.
Andalusia becomes the third consecutive place, after Aragón and Extremadura, where the far-right agitator Alvise Pérez fails in his attempt to get his party, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), into a regional parliament. The formation remained at 2.5%, far from the 6.21% of the votes it reached in Andalusia in the 2024 European elections. The provincial parties Jaén Merece Más and 100×100 Unidos, the party of the mayor of La Línea de la Concepción (Cádiz), the independent Juan Franco, also fail to enter the former Hospital de las Cinco Llagas in Seville, seat of the Andalusian Parliament.
