More than two years ago I wrote an article with the title The Four Sheinbaums, to express the idea that the president’s ability to imprint her true mark on the 4T would be a gradual process. Obviously, from less to more. The first Claudia was the one who could express herself timidly during campaign times, when her designation as Morena’s standard-bearer depended essentially on the definition of Morena and its leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. These were times that demanded showing the necessary capacity and consistency to continue the founder’s project; a situation not very conducive to elaborating on the nuances she conceived for her second floor.
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The second Claudia existed briefly during the four months between her election and her inauguration. The president-elect gained greater confidence thanks to an extraordinary result: she obtained 60% of the votes, almost 7% more than what was achieved by deputies and senators of her party. A popular endorsement that legitimized her not only in legal terms, but above all political ones. Consequently, she allowed herself to express, albeit generically, aspects of her agenda to be incorporated into the 4T program: the role of women, the environment, the modernization of public administration.
The third Claudia is the one we have seen throughout these almost two initial years of her government. Inevitably, a period of transition. And not only because every handover, whether of political institutions or not, even private ones, entails a stage of readjustment and validation. Particularly in this case, in which the first female president in the country’s history is inaugurated, amidst an inward-gritting skepticism from the very masculine network of de facto powers. And above all, with the inevitable difficulties of replacing a charismatic leader who had made the ruling party an extension of his will.
Viewed this way, what Sheinbaum has achieved in less than two years is remarkable. Not only because, little by little, she has been incorporating additional pieces into her keyboard, levers and buttons on the control panel. Also because she has done so without causing unnecessary waves, fractures, or media scandals. What has happened, without appearing to be a purge, is the incorporation of key personnel with whom she feels more comfortable: modifications in the cabinet, particularly in the economic sphere, changes of leadership in the Superior Audit Office of the Federation, in the Prosecutor’s Office, in the coordination of the Senate, in the party leadership. The hardliners or radicals, who were supposed to assume the role of apostles of Obradorism, are part of her office (Jesús Ramírez, Luisa María Alcalde) or her Cabinet (Martí Batres, Marath Baruch) and work under her supervision, which, by the way, is very close. Irreducibles like Marx Arriaga, the one from the textbooks, are out of her Administration.
Alternative leaders within the movement, such as those who served as rivals for the candidacy, like Adán Augusto López or Fernández Noroña, or potential political heirs, like Andrés Manuel López Beltrán, are now greatly diminished. Marcelo Ebrard, her main former opponent, is now a loyal collaborator. No one is in a position to dispute or overshadow her leadership.
The same has happened with some “Claudista” public policies. The change of direction on issues such as Public Security, Health, Environment, Energy, or Education has been implemented seeking to avoid any reproach or recrimination for what was done in the previous six-year term. And yet, in some aspects, the turn was 180 degrees. Perhaps the most important thing has been the way she has managed the relationship with López Obrador: respectful, even admiring and always grateful, but independent. In practice, she has vaccinated her administration against any temptation or setback that would justify an intervention from the founder.
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Claudia Sheinbaum will begin her third year with margins for maneuver and potential that she did not have in the first months. It is also a matter of a learning curve; the presidential craft is only acquired through experience. Knowing the scope and limits of her team of collaborators also involves a maturation process.
It’s not that things will change drastically starting September 2. It is a process, but, in essence, it is an cumulative process. Anyone who carefully watches the daily “mañanera” will be able to notice what the president has gained in terms of confidence and composure. To go no further, the way Rocha’s power in Sinaloa was neutralized in recent hours, without fanfare or heavy-handedness, but radically, as we will see in the coming months, is a good example of Sheinbaum’s style. Critics will want to read between the lines and invent puppeteers. But things will evolve, as they have over these two years, into an interim governor and a definitive one, into close allies to the Palace. Time will tell.
What we will see for the rest of the six-year term is an enhanced version of what the president has been in her first three stages. And of course, no one is exempt from errors, from the possibility of making mistakes, but I think a Claudia 4.0 is good news. Economic growth and the fight against corruption would have to advance if the six-year term is truly to be successful.
For now, it seems to me an opportunity for the country that someone with her political prudence and, above all, with her gifts for public administration is in a position to govern at a time when, due to the change in global economic and geopolitical paradigms, Mexico needs to rethink its own path. It is Sheinbaum’s turn to propose her version and she has the means to try.
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@jorgezepedap
