The double blockade of Hormuz is a clash of eras, with endless ramifications. Of suffering for the countries importing oil and gas, especially the poorest. Of hardship, also, for the exporters in the Persian Gulf, accustomed to swimming in abundance and who now see their sales channels short-circuited. And of money falling from the sky for the fossil powers outside that region, who are able to sell ―and at much higher prices― everything they extract from underground. With one prominent name: that of the United States, which in just over a decade has gone from great energy dependence to a hegemony now reinforced by the war ―its war― against Iran.
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Spurred by the closure of the strait, the North American giant is today the largest fossil energy supplier in the world and also a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since World War II. With Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq diminished ―only able to extract part of their production, by pipeline― and Kuwait and Bahrain unable to put a single barrel on the global oil market, their crude today finds buyers much more easily.
By destinations, U.S. crude exports to Asia and Europe are particularly soaring, given the urgent need of both continents to replace everything they previously received from the Persian Gulf. Crude, yes, but also diesel and kerosene, both very scarce these strange days. And at skyrocketing prices. A great business for their energy companies that, however, American consumers suffer from: as in the rest of the world, they have to pay much more every time they go to the gas station ―which already averages $4.5 per gallon, a little over one euro per liter― or buy a plane ticket.
The latest figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveal that the country’s oil exports reached a new record last week: six million barrels per day, practically double what it was before the first U.S. ―and Israeli― bombs began to fall on Tehran. Immediately after came the closure of Hormuz, through which typically passes a fifth of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG, the kind transported by ship) consumed worldwide and which today is little more than a wasteland.
If refined fuel sales are also added to crude sales, U.S. exports soar to 14 million barrels per day, also a new record. Mainly due to the surge in diesel shipments heading to Europe. To put the figures in context, the U.S. practically exported nothing until 2014. It was from then on that fracking began to bear its first fruits, a new technique that at that time barely resonated ―and distantly― in specialized circles.
“The short-term benefits for the United States are clear: its main competitors are being severely restricted, which in turn is driving prices up. It is a huge windfall for U.S. oil and gas producers,” notes Ira Joseph, researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, in conversation with EL PAÍS. “In the long term, however, oil consumption for transportation will fall [due to the electrification of the vehicle fleet]. And renewables and battery demand will undermine LNG demand.”
Qatar, out of play
In April, U.S. gas exports, a key fuel for industry and heating, soared to a new record. Largely due to the forced retreat of its main competitor, Qatar: with Hormuz blocked, the emirate has gone from putting more LNG on the market than anyone else to practically not being able to sell anything. A clear path that U.S. energy companies are taking advantage of, and in a big way.
Doha, a gas player among gas players, has not only seen its export channels cut off: in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran has attacked some of its key energy facilities, sowing doubts about its future capacity. Iranian army bombings and drones have caused damage to the Ras Laffan complex, the largest gas field on the planet. An offensive that, according to calculations by the all-powerful state firm Qatar Energy, threatens almost a fifth of its export capacity in the next five years.
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“The United States not only sells more LNG today than any other country: its export capacity will approximately double by 2030,” emphasize analysts from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA, an environmentalist-leaning think tank). It is a genuine revolution, with enormous reverberations on two levels: economic ―its industry has access to natural gas much cheaper than in other parts of the world― and geostrategic ―it has given it more strategic autonomy than it ever imagined―.
This total change in the U.S. energy snapshot has only been possible thanks to fracking, a technique that consists of injecting a mixture of water, sand, and chemicals into rock formations to obtain shale, rich in oil and natural gas.
U.S. LNG sales will continue to grow in the coming years as the five major extraction projects come into operation and increase their production. Not only by ship, but also by pipeline: especially to Mexico, which now also wants to ride that wave. Precisely, to not depend so much on its northern neighbor.
The U.S. administration projects an 18% increase in its net natural gas exports this year. A figure that could even fall short if the closure of Hormuz is prolonged and Qatar remains out of play longer than expected. By 2027, net exports will increase by an additional 10%.
Trump has been boasting for months about how much the United States has become a fossil superpower. Against his fanatical animosity toward renewables ―especially renewables―, during the election campaign he popularized the drill baby drill slogan. A way to publicly unleash after a few years, those of the Joe Biden administration, in which the bet was on the future ―renewables― and not the past ―crude, gas, and also very polluting coal―.
Although this strong surge in U.S. exports has been fundamental to cover the void left by the Gulf countries, it is also a double-edged sword for countries desperately relying on that resource. In the Trump era, the United States is anything but a reliable partner. Neither for Europe, nor for Asia, nor for anyone.
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