The weather for eclipse week: intense heat and afternoon storms in the east

The week of the eclipse will be marked in the weather by heat, but it will be normal heat for the season, not intense or extraordinary, says Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), this Monday. Thus, thermometers will exceed 35° in large areas and 40° in the northeast, southern half of the peninsula, and Mallorca. There will be torrid nights ―where temperatures do not drop below 25°― in the Mediterranean area, with an intense feeling of stuffiness due to humidity. Looking ahead to the weekend, good news: a “general thermal drop” is expected. As for clouds, there will be “some instability that will translate into showers and storms,” mainly in the east, which may be locally strong or even very strong and accompanied by hail and intense wind gusts.

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Day by day, this Monday showers and storms will fall in the afternoon in the eastern peninsula, “very strong in southern Aragón, Valencian Community, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, and interior Murcia,” with more than 40 liters per square meter in one hour or even 60 ― torrential intensity ― especially in southern Aragón. They may also be accompanied by large hail and very strong wind gusts. “It will be a quite adverse situation, with significant danger in many areas and where local flooding could occur,” warns Del Campo. On the thermometers, temperatures rise in the northwest and fall in the east. Temperatures will exceed 36° in the east, center, and south of the Peninsula and 38° in Mallorca.

This forecast translates into a map with warnings in 10 communities: Andalusia (yellow, the minimum, for heat, rain, and storms), Aragón (yellow for heat and orange, the second level of three, for rain and storms), Balearic Islands (orange for heat), Castilla La-Mancha (yellow for heat and orange for rain and storms), Catalonia (yellow for heat and storms), Madrid (yellow for heat), Murcia (orange for rain and storms), Navarra and La Rioja (yellow for rain and storm), and Valencian Community (orange for rain and storm and yellow for rough seas).

Tuesday will be “a more stable day, although again there may be locally strong showers and storms in the east, especially in areas of the Pyrenees and the Iberian system.” Temperatures will rise in the Mediterranean and exceed 35° in most of the country, except in the Cantabrian and Mediterranean coast. More than 38° will be reached in low areas of the northeast, center, south of the Peninsula, and points in Mallorca, and more than 40° in the Guadalquivir valley.

Water warnings practically disappear from the map, except for a yellow in Catalonia. Also, there is yellow for heat in Andalusia, Aragón, Balearic Islands, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, Extremadura, Galicia, Madrid, Navarra, and La Rioja.

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Wednesday, the day of the total solar eclipse, “temperatures rise in most of Spain.” They will dawn above 25° in Mediterranean cities such as Palma and Málaga and, during the afternoon, more than 36° will be reached generally, except in coastal areas. More than 38 or 40° will be reached in the northeast, center, and south of the Peninsula and Mallorca, and more than 40° in Ebro, Tajo, Guadiana, and Guadalquivir. Regarding what really matters this day, “the skies will generally be clear, although there will be clouds in the Cantabrian and on the Mediterranean coasts of southern Andalusia.” “Cumulus clouds will also form in mountains of the north and east peninsula, with some possible isolated storms in the Eastern Pyrenees and Betic systems.”

There may be some haze in the south of the Peninsula. There will be a very high or extreme fire risk in most of the territory, especially in the interior of Galicia, Castilla y León, northern Aragón and Catalonia, and isolated areas of the southern half. “Be very cautious when going out to the countryside to observe the eclipse. If a fire starts, it could be very difficult to control,” warns the Aemet spokesperson.

Thursday “temperatures will rise a little more, it will be a very hot day” with storms in the interior peninsula, especially in the east, where they could be intense in mountainous systems. From Friday uncertainty increases, but the most likely scenario is that “a temperature drop will begin that would continue over the weekend and would make the heat no longer so intense, although on Friday temperatures could still exceed 36° in large areas.” On the contrary, instability “is likely to increase and showers with storms will occur in much of the north, center, and east of the Peninsula, which locally could be strong with storms and hail.”

Finally, in Canary Islands “stable weather and high temperatures for the season” will prevail, which will also “rise slightly.” During most of the week, including the day of the eclipse, “cloudy skies are expected in low areas of the more mountainous islands, remaining mostly clear or clear at the summits and in the south of the islands.” The week will start with strong or very strong trade winds, and from Wednesday or Thursday they will lose intensity.

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