Mexican capital is changing hands and also its destination. As the largest wealth transfer in recent history is activated, younger heirs diversify the industrial model that built their grandparents’ fortunes and direct their investments towards international markets. This shift — silent but sustained — occurs alongside the loss of confidence and economic slowdown, threatening to deepen the weakness of productive investment in the country.
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In Mexico, there is a mismatch between the weakening of the real economy and the increase in wealth: while fortunes grow at a double-digit pace, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lags behind. According to UBS bank, the average wealth per adult in the country has grown 150% since the 2008 financial crisis. And only in 2025 — a year marked by uncertainty generated by the trade dispute with the United States — most Mexican business fortunes (with at least 400 million dollars) strengthened, led by those of Carlos Slim, 86 years old, and Germán Larrea, 72 years old, according to the financial information service Infosel, which quantifies a joint growth of 38%.
However, the year-end GDP result disappointed with a marginal expansion of 0.8%, amid the sluggishness that triggered a 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the flow of assets of Mexicans abroad amounted to about 25 billion dollars last year, including direct investment and portfolios of bonds and stocks, showing sustained growth, according to the Bank of Mexico.
In this context, firms like the American BAI Capital are capitalizing on the growing interest of Mexican investors in placing resources in other markets, such as the United States, offering schemes that combine real estate investment with access to permanent residency. “Capital is repositioning,” says Juan Carlos Eguiarte, general manager of the firm in Mexico. “What we are saying is not a theory, it is an active repositioning of global capital. Wealthy families in Latin America, and Mexico, are making decisions right now. They are moving assets from unstable jurisdictions to markets with clearer rules,” he adds.
For the company, with offices in Mexico, Taiwan, and soon China, these capitals that are “scaling” towards Texas, Florida, or California seek the protection of the dollar as a safe-haven currency, access to a capital market with greater liquidity, and above all, legal certainty for their operations, amid the instability generated by judicial reform and the review of the USMCA in industrial plans. “Also, they seek something very important: succession planning, known as the Great Wealth Transfer phenomenon,” he concedes. He refers to the hundreds of trillions of dollars that will be inherited from the hands of the baby boomers, who are approaching 80 years old, to younger generations, such as Generation X, millennials, and Generation Z.
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This transfer, particularly relevant for Mexico due to the weight of family wealth in the economy, is also changing investment preferences. Various studies estimate that about 90% of companies in Mexico are family-owned and that a significant proportion of capital remains concentrated in the first or second generation. Younger millionaires are more open to global diversification and less conservative instruments, such as cryptocurrencies, real estate investment funds, technology-biased stocks, and asset baskets like ETFs (exchange-traded funds). According to a survey by the investment firm Natixis, millennials lean more towards sustainable investments (32%) and almost a quarter (24%) invest in cryptocurrencies.
Swallow capitals
This redirection of resources, combined with a sustained drop in gross fixed investment (GFI) — which measures how much an economy invests in its productive capacity — and the exit of buyers of Mexican debt, is taking a toll on the economy. Due to its proximity and commercial relationship with the United States, Mexico has managed to maintain its relative manufacturing advantage as the main supplier of goods to the world’s largest consumer. This has boosted its exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), which grew 10.8% in 2025, becoming the lifeline of performance. However, structural failures in infrastructure, security — both criminal and regulatory — and basic services have limited the expected nearshoring boom. In January 2026, GFI showed an annual drop of 2.2%, accumulating 17 consecutive months of declines, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
“The fact that waves of capital are not entering reflects a great risk aversion towards the Mexican economy,” says Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero Base. The balance of government securities held by foreign residents, such as bonds or Treasury certificates (Cetes), has stabilized near 1.7 trillion pesos, after seven months of decline last year. However, the economist warns that the risk of capital flight persists, amid greater global aversion due to the Iran war, and a deterioration in perception about Mexico, associated with higher indebtedness and tight public spending. Siller adds that it is estimated that 70% of tax revenues are committed to social programs, financial costs of debt, and contributory and non-contributory pensions.
“Also, the Mexican economy has fallen into a stagnation trap, and this does not help,” she adds. Analysts’ forecasts point to Latin America’s second-largest economy growing below 2% by year-end, reflecting a GDP with less capacity to absorb new capital and offer returns. “Any investor looks for a good risk-return combination, even when talking about fixed assets. Faced with higher risk, obviously, they stop investing.”