The United States is preparing to reduce its contribution to NATO. The Donald Trump Administration plans to cut the forces it makes available to allies in Europe in case of crisis or threat. Within the cuts, Washington includes elements of great relevance such as military aircraft, tanker planes, drones, and other long-range systems that are now decisive for the deterrent capacity of the Atlantic Alliance, according to several sources familiar with the plans. This adjustment of forces based in the United States and ready for mobilization adds to the announced withdrawal of about 5,000 soldiers stationed in Germany and the freezing of the program to place Tomahawk missiles on German territory.
The decision, conveyed late last week by Alexander Velez-Green, envoy of the US Undersecretary of Defense, Elbridge A. Colby, to the defense policy directors of the European allied countries and Canada at a meeting in Brussels, is part of Washington’s plans to reduce its presence in Europe and its involvement in the organization. The Europeans are now analyzing the effects of that decision and the steps to follow.
Velez-Green informed the allies that the US seeks to reconfigure the so-called Force Model, the system with which the Euro-Atlantic military organization organizes and prepares itself, as Der Spiegel revealed. A plan that works as a list of available forces: each ally commits to providing soldiers, planes, ships, or equipment with the idea that NATO can mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops and capabilities in a coordinated manner to defend an ally in case of need.
The Alliance reinforced that model in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine ordered by Vladimir Putin. And now the US, the allied country that contributes the most to that planning model, with a very substantial part, seeks to reduce its presence within its new strategy to focus on other scenarios; fundamentally in the Indo-Pacific in the face of a possible crisis in 2027.
Washington also wants European allies to replace their contribution. At the meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Velez-Green spoke to European officials about the “redistribution” of the military burden, according to several sources. Although no specific deadlines were mentioned.
Washington had already indicated that there would be adjustments in its contribution to NATO and its presence in Europe, which President Trump considers disproportionate. And after the real estate magnate’s announcement that he would withdraw 5,000 of his troops from Germany — something seen as a punishment to that country and its chancellor, Friedrich Merz, for their criticisms of the US campaign in Iran — the allies expected Velez-Green to arrive with the cuts.
Still, European allies were surprised by the extent of the cuts, which include key elements that Europe will not find easy to replace. From fighters to submarines. The details are opaque, as military and asset information of the Alliance is secret, as part of its deterrence strategy.
Washington demands that European allies design a plan to replace the capabilities it will no longer make available to the Old Continent. And that it be ready before the leaders’ summit in Ankara, on July 7 and 8. Washington has offered partners help with planning. Additionally, it seeks to sell Europe some of those systems with which they will have to replace theirs. A replacement that some European sources see as an “opportunity” to rethink whether they should be replaced point by point and whether some can be swapped for European capabilities.
Secret strategic plans
European partners are now analyzing how to respond. And to do so, moreover, in a limited time. NATO, meanwhile, downplays the moves by the US, its most powerful ally, and assures that it will benefit the military organization, of which Spain has been a part since 1982. “The NATO Force Model is the general framework for making national forces available to the Alliance,” says Allison Hart, spokesperson for NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who confirms that the meeting with the US envoy took place but avoids giving details of the meeting, beyond that the allies “exchanged views on future contributions to the NATO Force Model.”
“Historically, there has been an excessive dependence on US forces and capabilities. However, as Europe and Canada invest more in defense and develop greater capabilities, the balance of responsibilities can change,” Hart states by email. “This change strengthens NATO’s defense plans by reducing excessive dependence on a single ally and reflects a broader transformation taking place within the Alliance. It is about laying the foundations for greater NATO sustainability in the coming decades,” she says.
The US initiative has another reading. And that is that with this reduction of available capabilities, Washington reduces its contribution to the Alliance. That contribution is measured by actual military capabilities, operational availability, participation in missions and operations. And not only by spending, the variable that Trump constantly emphasizes. The US leader achieved a year ago that allies committed to spending 5% of their GDP on defense. All except Spain, which assures that with 2% it can meet its commitments to the Alliance.
The reduction of military assets marks a fundamental strategic change: Washington wants Europe to stop depending on the US military umbrella. It is another way to reach what the Trump Administration has called NATO 3.0, which means Europe assumes the conventional defense of the continent.
