More than 6.8 million citizens are called to vote this Sunday in the Andalusian regional elections. The polls opened at 9:00 and will close at 20:00 to deposit the ballots at more than 10,400 polling stations in the provinces of Huelva, Cádiz, Málaga, Granada, Almería, Jaén, Córdoba, and Seville. The count will begin at that time. These five figures help to follow the scrutiny and understand who achieves their goals and who does not.
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55: Moreno’s longing. On the left wrist of Juan Manuel Moreno, president of the Junta and candidate for re-election for the PP, there is a tattooed number: 58. It is the number of parliamentarians he managed to place in the old Hospital de las Cinco Llagas, in Seville, seat of the Andalusian Parliament, in the 2022 elections, a day that brought a historic absolute majority for his party. Moreno, who has been in power for more than seven years and four years ago obtained 43.11% of the ballots, could even afford to lose three and end the night with complete success. Because 55, half plus one of the 109 seats in Parliament, would be enough to renew his absolute majority and would make him the first to achieve it — in his case, maintain it — since in 2024 Vox left the regional governments and began a progressive rise in polls and ballots. 55 is the president’s great longing.
If he does not reach that number, it is most likely that Moreno will be at the mercy of Vox, because the three left-wing forces, the PSOE, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, have made it clear that they will not facilitate his investiture. Polls predict the failure of the provincial parties 100×100 Unidos — from Cádiz — and Jaén Merece Más, as well as Se Acabó la Fiesta, the formation of Alvise Pérez. So a priori only Vox could provide the PP — as it has done in Extremadura and Aragón and is expected to happen in Castilla y León — the missing seats, if any, for the popular candidate to repeat as president.
30: The PSOE’s historic floor. The PSOE starts from the worst result in its history, the 30 seats obtained in 2022 by the then socialist candidate, Juan Espadas. Replaced by the former vice president and former government minister María Jesús Montero to improve those figures, polls indicate that she could worsen them. If this happens, the PSOE will break its historic floor again in a community it governed for 37 years. The numbers of the socialist decline are striking in historical perspective. In 2004, Manuel Chaves obtained 2.2 million votes in the regional elections. Four years ago, Espadas received less than 890,000.
Montero’s candidacy believes that their main enemy is the demobilization of the progressive electorate and that a high turnout, around 65%, would be beneficial, which would represent a significant jump from just over 56% in 2022. Another figure that will measure the severity of the expected socialist defeat is whether the PP will manage to outscore them by 20 points or if the gap will be smaller.
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14: Abascal’s starting point. Vox has grown in votes, percentage, and seats in the three elections of the current electoral cycle, that is, in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León. Andalusia could be the fourth consecutive place where it grows. If it does not happen, the balance of the party led in Andalusia by Manuel Gavira would be negative, although any reading would be sweetened if the PP depends on its vote for investiture. The starting point of Santiago Abascal’s formation is 13.47% and about 500,000 votes from 2022, which earned it 14 seats. The party risks achieving its worst result in Andalusia of the four elections in the current cycle, falling below the 16.9% in Extremadura.
56.58 against 36.38. Currently, the right with parliamentary representation totals 56.58% of the votes, the sum of 43.11% for the PP and 13.47% for Vox. On the left, the PSOE (24.1%), Por Andalucía (7.7%), and Adelante Andalucía (4.58%) share 36.38%. That is more than 20 points difference in favor of the right-wing bloc. It remains to be seen which bloc increases its percentage this Sunday, and if Andalusia further rights its representation in Parliament, as has already happened in Extremadura (60.08%), Aragón (52.14%), and Castilla y León (54.39%). Barring a major surprise, the two main forces of the right-wing bloc will share more than half the vote for the fourth consecutive time.
5: The minimum to form a group. To form your own parliamentary group, you must obtain a minimum of five deputies. This is exactly what Por Andalucía achieved in 2022, the coalition that includes IU, Podemos, and Movimiento Sumar — among other left-wing and Andalusian forces. Polls present a fairly stable outlook for the candidacy led by Antonio Maíllo, who aims not only to maintain but to increase its vote percentage and number of representatives. If it fails to meet its expectations, the slight rebound predicted by polls does not occur, and it loses even one seat, Por Andalucía would be left without a group. Also on the alternative left, Adelante aims to go from the current two to five or more, achieving its own group that nationalism has not had for 18 years, since the collapse of the Partido Andalucista. Based on polls, it is assumed that the candidacy led by José Ignacio García will rise, but it remains to be seen if it achieves a group and surpasses Por Andalucía.
