With the first real estate chapter of the year closed, and all quarterly statistics already on the table, the balance fully matches what experts anticipated: nothing yet indicates that the current housing access crisis will drastically change course in 2026. Houses are expected to continue becoming more expensive, and those who already have difficulty accessing purchase will continue to be left out of a market that will keep them sidelined. Although signs are emerging that something is changing and prices are approaching the limit where they become completely unaffordable for families and discouraging for investors. Additionally, analysts warn, a major economic shock—something not entirely ruled out given the turbulent international situation—could indeed place the market in a different scenario.
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Data from the first quarter have left seemingly contradictory impressions. Home purchases have fallen compared to last year, with 4,713 fewer transactions between January and March than in the same period of 2025, representing a 2.6% decrease. But in other indicators, figures reached very high levels. The number of mortgages signed was the highest in the last 15 years (131,554) for a first quarter. And the appraised value per square meter exceeded the threshold of 2,300 euros for the first time thanks to a year-on-year increase of nearly 14%, the highest in 20 years. Industry representatives believe that the slow cooling signals seen at the start of the year will continue throughout the entire year. Unless the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (which have already lasted three months) or tensions in Ukraine intensify and end up impacting the overall economy and, consequently, the real estate sector.
The apparent paradox of a decline in sales alongside a rise in mortgages is far from an anomaly for Pau A. Montserrat, professor of Financial Economics at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB). He explains that both movements are consistent because they respond to a change in the profile of the homebuyer: “A significant part of the demand came from purchases without the need for financing, such as those by many non-residents, and that segment has been moderating its activity for some time,” he notes. But it is a withdrawal with a message: “It could be a first sign of a cycle change that professionals or buyers with greater economic capacity are withdrawing as they perceive a possible overheating of the real estate market,” he clarifies.
The step back of the biggest (and most voracious) players clears the way somewhat for those seeking their first residence but who do not have enough savings to face the purchase without a loan. And the still stable socioeconomic context supports the behavior of many families. “If employment works reasonably well, history shows us that in periods where the economy grows and employment also does, credit responds positively,” assesses Leyre López, analyst at the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE). “Between January and March, average rates barely changed, which has maintained interest in financing among those buyers who had already decided to purchase a home,” agrees Lorena Vega, head of Research at Gesvalt.
But those who can take that step also face increasingly expensive homes. And often, unaffordable for their pockets. That is why in the first quarter details also emerge that depict small paradigm shifts: according to Idealista data, 14% of the listings on this platform lowered their prices during the period. “Prices are having to be readjusted to close sales transactions, which, as we have been warning since the end of last year, are taking longer and longer to complete,” emphasizes José María Alfaro, president of the National Federation of Real Estate Associations (FAI).
Rebalancing
These financial difficulties for many households do not yet have the capacity to cause a large-scale market freeze because demand is still sufficient for the supply that comes out. But they do show that prices, although still growing at an exorbitant pace, are increasingly approaching the theoretical limit at which no potential buyer can (or wants to) pay them. “We are no longer in the situation of 2023 or 2024, when absolutely everything sold at the asking price. Now, since the second half of 2025, the market is beginning to rebalance,” adds Alfaro. “Despite this, it remains a clearly supply-driven market where the negotiating power still resides with the seller,” he nuances.
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The frenzy of the free sales market (protected housing follows a different path, although also within the construction scarcity) is, in turn, inevitably influenced by the continued rise of rentals. Rentals continue without respite: in March they were 7% more expensive than a year earlier, according to Idealista, which also states that supply has decreased by 30% in the last three years (something that in the Ministry of Housing’s analysis is not inherently bad if it reflects greater stabilization of tenants who already have a home).
But what is clear is that, with rents in many places well above the theoretical cost of a mortgage, households try to become owners. “There is a kind of call effect in sales. And when we have a rental market that does not work, the most optimal financial decision at this time is to buy,” stresses Montserrat. “Renting in many parts of Spain is not possible; it is a risky activity; therefore, people as soon as they have saved a little try to buy with a mortgage,” he concludes.
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