Being in Budapest last Sunday night was like witnessing history being made again by the Danube. As enthusiastic crowds gathered on the riverbank in front of the illuminated Parliament building and chanted “Ria-ria Hungaria!” and “Hungary, Europe!”, we were all aware that the repercussions of the spectacular electoral victory of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party would be felt far beyond this Central European country. The result is very good news for Ukraine and the European Union and, to the same extent, bad news for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the American president, Donald Trump, the two main supporters of Viktor Orbán’s regime. The biggest question now is whether Hungary can be the first country in the world to truly overcome such a devastating populist erosion of democracy — the Orbanization that Trump is trying to emulate in the United States — and whether Europe has the political will and imagination necessary for it to succeed.
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Already on Friday night, surrounded by a huge crowd of young people at the To Change the System concert in Heroes’ Square in Budapest, I felt the energy of transformation. In the same square where, in 1989, I saw a fiery student leader named Viktor Orbán call for the end of the old and exhausted communist regime and for the Russians to go home, there was now a new generation of Hungarians calling for the end of an old and exhausted regime led by that same Orbán and his party, Fidesz. “Dirty Fidesz!” they shouted, and indeed, “Russians, go home!”. Because everyone knows that Orbán today is Putin’s man in Brussels.
On Saturday night, amid a smaller crowd, mostly middle-aged people listening to Orbán deliver his final campaign speech in front of the statue of Saint Stephen, on the Buda side of the river, I sensed the immense exhaustion of his regime. Despite the professional array of mobilization — the usual flags, small groups with megaphones to cheer chants, spotlights pointing to the night sky in the style of Albert Speer — the rally had as much energy as a retirees’ tea party. Orbán himself was hoarse, aggressive, and irritable and at one point even began complaining about today’s youth. I thought that today he was the old communist. On the bus back from Buda, the student who was serving as my interpreter overheard a woman behind asking one of those waving Fidesz flags: “How much have they paid you since March 15?” “I’ll tell you later,” he replied.
However, despite encouraging polls, on the morning of election day we still had no idea what was going to happen. As Sunday progressed and we began to see unprecedented turnout figures, optimism grew. When the polls closed at seven in the evening, the results that started coming in immediately showed a crushing victory. An avalanche of popular will had overwhelmingly overcome the manipulation of constituencies, media control, and the blatant vote buying that had certainly created anything but a level playing field for the elections. Then, shortly after nine at night, a brief and surprising message appeared on Magyar’s Facebook page: Orbán had just called him to acknowledge defeat. (Paraphrasing Shakespeare: nothing was as honorable for Orbán in his political life as the way he left it). Instantly, celebrations began. “Voldemort is over!” exclaimed Julia, a young researcher who was with me heading towards the river.
A little later, Magyar gave his victory speech on the banks of the Danube. He promised to turn Hungary into a country where everyone can live freely as they wish, restore constitutional checks and balances, improve relations with neighboring countries, and make it a solid partner of NATO and the EU. “Europe! Europe! Europe!” the crowd chanted.
Monday dawned and calm analysis began. Will they be able to achieve it? Of course, what happened in 1989 was much more momentous, but all Hungarians are using exactly the same word we heard so much back then to talk about the system change: rendszerváltás. It can also be translated as “regime change,” but to me that sense carries a strong connotation of external intervention. Since the crushing victory has given Tisza the qualified two-thirds majority in Parliament needed to make constitutional changes, the new government will be able to overcome many of the obstacles hindering the post-populist transition in Poland. Perhaps the president and the Constitutional Court will remain a problem. It will largely depend on how united Fidesz remains and how far Orbán is willing to resist change. But there is a good chance the political system can be transformed.
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The economic situation is more difficult. The Hungarian economy is in very bad shape. Fidesz has already spent more than three-quarters of this year’s budget in its attempt to win votes. No one knows the content of the energy, investment, and loan contracts with Russia and China. Magyar’s big promises to continue Fidesz’s social aid and price controls will not help either. Tisza intends to recover the large sums stolen by people linked to Orbán’s regime, but it will not be easy. Therefore, gaining quick and unbureaucratic access to the approximately 18 billion euros of funds frozen by the EU, as well as new ones, will be crucial.
The EU and European governments must do everything possible to support this unprecedented post-populist system change. With conditions, of course. But those conditions, instead of being the bureaucratic checkboxes of Brussels that Orbán’s regime exploited so well, must be substantial political requirements designed for the nature and specific difficulties of this transition. National leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, should join EU institutional leaders in engaging in that highest-level dialogue with the new Hungarian officials. And priorities must include issues such as press freedom, accountability, and controls over an overly powerful executive.
I was greatly impressed by the number of young Hungarians spontaneously chanting positive slogans about Europe in the streets of Budapest. In a way, this seems almost like Hungary’s second “return to Europe” (one of the slogans of 1989).
Moreover, the EU has a moral debt to the Hungarian people because Brussels was one of the main facilitators of the destruction of liberal democracy by Orbán. It allowed billions of euros of EU funds to be diverted directly and corruptly. One of the first European politicians to congratulate Magyar on Sunday, Manfred Weber, was for many years one of Fidesz’s main defenders in the European People’s Party. The “dear Viktor” was for too long indulged by the gentlemen’s club of national leaders in the European Council, which included women like then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Then-European Council President Jean-Claude Juncker greeted the Hungarian prime minister in 2015 with the jovial words “hello, dictator!”. What a laugh.
Now, the most important thing is the invaluable prize of proving that there is a way out of the worst populism. Hungary was one of the first European countries to free itself from communism in 1989, but it was also, in 2010, the first to fall into populism that undermines democracy. If it can now be the first to emerge victorious from that situation, that will be a fundamental precedent. It is possible that, then, even the United States might want to learn some Hungarian lessons.
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