Just one week before the first round, left-wing senator Iván Cepeda reaffirms himself as the leader of the presidential race in Colombia, while far-right Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from the Uribista Paloma Valencia in the contest that the two right-wing candidates maintain for second place, according to the latest wave of polls published this weekend. The candidate of the Historic Pact leads the measurement of the National Consulting Center, which was published this Saturday near midnight by the magazine Cambio, with 33.4% voting intention, followed by De la Espriella, with 30.9%, in a technical tie, while Valencia appears third with 12.6%. Further behind are the two centrist candidates, Claudia López (2.5%) and Sergio Fajardo (2.1%).
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This is the last poll released before the blackout that begins this Sunday, when several candidates have their respective campaign closings, and it coincides with the others in the order of the top three, although they differ in the distances between them.
“Sixty days ago, Abelardo de la Espriella was third in a three-person race. Today he is breathing down the neck of the leader Iván Cepeda, left Paloma Valencia twenty points behind, and turned what seemed like a blowout into an open fight,” points out the analysis made by Cambio of the results. The CNC poll, it adds, “confirms the upward trend of the lawyer, the setback of Valencia’s campaign, and the static first place of Cepeda, who closes the measurements without significant growth.”
In a possible second round, scheduled for June 21, Cepeda loses ground in the CNC poll. If he faces De La Espriella, the Historic Pact senator gets 40.9%, below the 43.6% of the criminal lawyer, although in a technical tie. If the runoff is against Paloma Valencia, Cepeda obtains 40.8% against 39.1% of the Democratic Center candidate.
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Between Thursday and Friday, the latest voting intention measurements from Atlas Intel, Invamer, and Guarumo had already been published. In the Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine, a firm surrounded by controversies for its role and methodology in Colombia, Cepeda remains in the lead with 38.7%, but De la Espriella is close behind and shoots up to 37.3%, in a technical tie. It is the one that shows them closest. Senator Valencia, the candidate of the Democratic Center, the party founded by former president Álvaro Uribe, falls to 14.3%. Fajardo (3.8%) and López (1.1%) appear very far behind.
In the Invamer poll for Noticias Caracol, released on Thursday, Cepeda has 44.6% voting intention, De la Espriella 31.6%, and Paloma 14%. This is the one that brings the Historic Pact candidate closest to the possibility of winning in the first round, without the need for a runoff, as he insists. To achieve this, he needs to obtain half plus one of the votes. In the Guarumo measurement, published by El Tiempo, the left-wing senator gets 37.1%, followed as in all the others by De la Espriella (27.5%) and Valencia (21.7%).
A controversial ban on publishing voting intention measurements was in effect from July to November, when polls began to be published sparingly. The same law that restricted them until then, challenged before the Constitutional Court, imposes conditions that all polling firms have repeatedly complained about, to the point of calling it a “gag law.” GAD3 even decided to suspend the publication of its studies in the final stretch of the Colombian campaign. During the last week before the elections, the publication of electoral polls is prohibited.
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