The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has confirmed this Saturday the arrival of a new heat wave, the third of this summer in Spain after the one recorded between June 21 and 24 and the one that occurred between July 5 and 9. The data indicate that climate change caused by humans is making these extreme episodes increase in number, intensity, and severity. It has also caused them to arrive earlier: between 1975 and 2000 there were only two heat waves in June in peninsular Spain; between 2000 and 2025, there were ten, five times more.
This third wave will occur when less than a month has passed since the summer period began. It is expected to start this Tuesday and will extend at least until Thursday, which will be, according to the warning issued by the agency, the “peak” moment. That day will bring temperatures of up to 45 degrees and will affect the southeastern third, Guadalquivir valley, Ebro valley, northeastern depressions, Pyrenees valleys, and interior of Mallorca. Additionally, “a mass of warm, dry air with suspended dust will also be situated over much of the Peninsula and Balearic Islands,” Aemet has reported.
According to the warning, the blocking pattern, which is currently causing “very high” temperatures in the eastern half of the peninsula, will “strengthen again over the weekend” with the establishment of a DANA (isolated low-pressure area) to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. “This circumstance, combined with the presence of an anticyclonic circulation at mid and high levels over North Africa, will allow the movement of a mass of warm, dry air with suspended dust, situated over much of the Peninsula and Balearic Islands,” it added.
In this context, a progressive rise in temperatures is expected starting this Saturday until reaching “very high” values during the first half of next week, “especially in points of the southern and southeastern peninsular third.” Thus, a significant danger level is expected during the central hours, especially for outdoor activities and vulnerable people, with nights that will also be very warm.
Fire risk
The fire danger level will increase again to extreme values, accompanied by possible dry afternoon storms in mountain areas. This Saturday, very high maximum temperatures are already expected in the interior of Andalusia, especially in valleys and river depressions, where temperatures may exceed 40ºC.
On Sunday, the most significant thermal rises will occur in the northern third and the eastern half of the peninsula, with few changes elsewhere, with temperatures also possibly reaching 40 degrees in points of the southeast, as well as with lower probability in the interior of Mallorca.
Upward trend
From Monday, the upward trend in temperatures is expected to continue on the Peninsula, especially in the Ebro valley and northeastern depressions, as well as in the coasts and pre-coasts of the southeast, with few changes elsewhere. Thus, maximum temperatures are forecast to reach 38-40ºC in the Ebro valley and northeastern depressions and eastern Castilla-La Mancha, 39-41ºC in the upper and middle course of the Guadalquivir valley, Genil basin, and interior of Mallorca, and 40-42ºC in points of the interior of the southeastern third.
“Although this day [Monday] is not included within the heat wave period, it cannot be ruled out that it may end up being included if new information supports it,” Aemet clarified.
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On Tuesday the 21st, rises will generalize to practically the entire peninsula, with slight decreases in points of the Iberian System, Levante coasts, and northeast Mallorca.
Thus, it is expected to be the first day of the heat wave, with maximum temperatures reaching 39-41ºC in the Ebro valley and northeastern depressions, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, upper and middle course of the Guadalquivir valley, and interior of Mallorca, 40-42ºC in the Genil basin, and 41-43ºC in points of the interior of the southeastern third, with local exceedances of 44ºC possible.
On Wednesday the 22nd, thermal rises will repeat, this time centered on the southwestern quadrant, where they could be locally moderate; 39-41ºC could repeat in the Ebro valley and northeastern depressions, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, and interior of Mallorca, 40-42ºC in the Guadalquivir valley and adjacent mountain ranges, as well as in the Genil basin, with the southeastern third remaining the most affected area, where 41-43ºC are expected in interior points, with local exceedances of 44ºC possible.
Thursday, the “peak” day of heat stress
On Thursday the 23rd, the blocking situation will persist, with new rises, this time centered on the Alboran coasts and southeastern third, adding to those recorded on previous days, and significant decreases only in the interior of Mallorca.
This is expected to be the “peak” day of the heat wave, with values around 37-39ºC in the interior of Mallorca, 39-41ºC in eastern Castilla-La Mancha, 40-42ºC in the Ebro valley and northeastern depressions, 41-43ºC in the Guadalquivir valley and adjacent mountain ranges, as well as in the Genil basin, and 42-44ºC in the southeastern third, locally exceeding 45ºC.
From Friday the 24th, and looking towards the weekend, generalized decreases are expected, although uncertainty is very high, so it cannot be ruled out that the heat wave could extend beyond Thursday the 23rd, according to Aemet, the agency responsible for declaring a heat wave episode. For this, it must last at least three consecutive days during which at least 10% of the country’s reference meteorological stations record maximums above the 95th percentile of their historical series of daily maximums for the months of July and August between 1971 and 2000.
