The ceremony of confusion surrounding President Donald Trump’s plans in the Middle East saw a new episode this Thursday. If the previous day a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia had been announced with great fanfare, which, according to Washington, was going to mean a shower of millions for the American industry, now a fundamental clause is added that could derail it: the demand that Riyadh normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. This was an aspect that Joe Biden’s Democratic administration had already stumbled upon, which seemed close to achieving a historic pact between the region’s most important Sunni Muslim country and the Jewish state until the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, thwarted the plans.
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Now, after the storm generated by the announcement of the US-Saudi plan, Trump adds a condition that sends the ball back to the start of the game. “The civil nuclear agreement (there will be no material enrichment!)… refers only to non-military uses, such as those already held by Iran and the United Arab Emirates (among others), and will be approved, but is entirely contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the highly respected and successful Abraham Accords,” the Republican wrote on Truth Social. These accords, signed by the United Arab Emirates during Trump’s first term in 2020, broke a decades-old taboo in the region, becoming the first Arab states in a quarter-century to recognize Israel. Later, Morocco and Sudan followed suit.
The new demand now put forward by Trump clashes with the usual Saudi stance, which argues that the quid pro quo for normalizing relations with Israel would be the recognition of a Palestinian state. And it comes after both Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and Republican leaders in Congress criticized the agreement for handing a blank check to the country led de facto by Mohammed Bin Salman without obliging him to any significant concession.
From what was announced on Wednesday, it was understood that the agreement allowed Riyadh to enrich uranium and build nuclear reactors using US technology, without requiring the immediate UN inspections that Washington had previously demanded from Iran. In principle, it was limited to programs for civilian purposes, but some voices warned that it could be understood as a step towards military use, fueling a dangerous nuclear race in the region. Trump now also reduces the scope in this aspect. “The United States does not oppose civilian nuclear facilities (without enrichment),” he added in his Truth post.
The change in the US stance has been met with silence in Riyadh and joy in Israel. “As President Trump has said, Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords would be a historic step forward for peace in the Middle East,” Netanyahu said in a statement. “The joint military action by the United States and Israel against the genocidal regime in Tehran and Israel’s dismantling of Iran’s axis of terror have created the possibility of expanding the circle of peace,” he added.
Before the new demand that Trump pulled out of his sleeve became known, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, assured that the agreement supports its efforts to diversify energy sources and incorporates the “highest international standards” of nuclear safety, protection, and non-proliferation.
The Trump administration stated on Wednesday that the civil nuclear agreement complies with the non-proliferation commitments set out in the US Atomic Energy Act, among the strictest in the world.
The pact requires approval from the US Congress. And it remains to be seen how Bin Salman will react to the new conditions. If it goes ahead, it would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and reprocess nuclear waste, two activities that could constitute potential pathways to developing nuclear weapons. The United Arab Emirates renounced both capabilities when they signed a similar agreement with the United States in 2009.
