The most important statement by Claudia Sheinbaum in the speech for the second year of her Government was a call for trust from her colleagues. Formulated as an unsolicited clarification, the president raised her tone and asserted that there are no divisions or rifts with Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
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“We are part of the Fourth Transformation project of public life,” the president read almost at the end of her speech, which lasted just over an hour. “Let no one be mistaken: there are no divisions here, there are no breakups here. The only thing here is the defense of the people of Mexico and their dignity.” Those words were applauded with normal emotion by those who accompanied her at the National Palace on Tuesday.
The context in which that statement occurred is very particular. With some promising results in security, owner of a fragile but functional relationship with the US, with tight reins on finances, fixing her popularity in the high sixties range and showing animosity towards the press, about to complete two years in office, the president is most challenged at home.
Morena is a mess that threatens the Government. Morena shakes with scandals that on many occasions make it necessary to question presidential leadership for its inaction in the face of programmatic deviations, tantrums, and, of course, signs of corruption. And the plausible explanation for such undue restraint would be that it fears losing support from the most ultra sectors of Obradorism, or from López Obrador himself.
The group in power has not found since 2018 the formula to separate what in the previous regime was attributed to Jesús Reyes Heroles: the Government, Government; the party, party. Or, as the Veracruz politician put it in his speech when taking office of the PRI in February 1972: “We are the party in Government, but we are not the Government.” Of course, practice later contradicted theory.
With Morena, norms and rituals are yet to be built. And the president lives trapped in that lack of Obradorist institutional maturity. Her rally to reaffirm unity, her eagerness to show her attachment to the origin, seeks before calling to order those who rebel, to convince the tribe that her Government will not turn its back on the movement. A proclamation she has made before.
President Sheinbaum, about to start the third year of her administration, must navigate a labyrinth that leads her to deliver results that help the party defend in 2027 the governorships it currently holds, that Morena is in a position to fight for victory in at least one more, Chihuahua, and, above all, to retain the constitutional majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
To achieve the above, the Administration prioritizes the greatest possible agreement with Donald Trump. If it loses the ability to maintain trade negotiations, even if tense, unpredictable, or accident-prone with the White House, not only will Mexico’s economic growth collapse, but also Morena’s chances of campaigning without signs of an economic crisis against it.
Talks with Washington are not free and go beyond the USMCA. One thing is that the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, declared days ago that scandals over visas denied to Morenistas or politicians accused of links to drug trafficking are not on the trade discussion table, and another that those talks do not depend on the willingness Washington perceives from Mexico on all matters.
As several media reported, alongside the USMCA rounds, the State Department now demands that Mexico make more effort to stop illegal crossings of nationals into US territory. A request that is just another turn in the screw that from the north pressures the Sheinbaum administration, which no matter how much it cooperates, will always be more demanded.
Cool head became the slogan that characterized Sheinbaum’s conduct with Trump both in the face of out-of-tone statements and for requests that corner her. In what the Mexican reaction to Marco Rubio’s new migration demand looks like, the president has had to step forward this week to denounce that the DEA intends to divide her Government.
Sheinbaum rejected the repeated expressions of praise from the DEA towards her Secretary of Citizen Security, Omar García Harfuch, aware of the suspicion that this devil’s kiss arouses in Morena ranks. If Sheinbaum’s policeman has been viewed with suspicion for years by the so-called hardliners of the movement, the more collaboration with the United States is strengthened, the worse.
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It was precisely the meeting of García Harfuch with Terry Cole, head of the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), at the meeting convened by the US agency on August 18 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, one of the elements that as a hypothesis would explain the abrupt, and ultimately failed, return of Rubén Rocha to the Sinaloa governorship last month.
Rocha would have viewed with maximum suspicion the publicized understanding between the agency that was mistreated by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his six-year term and the top-level collaborator most identified with President Sheinbaum. The fear of being arrested, based on what would be the end of the protection he enjoyed since López Obrador’s times, would have moved Rocha to retake the governorship on August 21.
With that decision, the governor, whose 2021 victory was tainted by accusations of help from narcos during the election, positioned himself at the center of Obradorism. Smiling, Rocha challenged the president. If over the hours, first the Interior Ministry, then the party, and finally the Morena governors left him alone, the doubt whether he had the former president’s approval for his rebellion never dissipated.
Rocha’s behavior is an extreme, but summarizes a pattern that frames both Andrés Manuel López Beltrán’s defiance in demanding President Trump fire officials because they took away his visa, and the apparent freshness with which Governor Mara Lezama appeared at Sheinbaum’s report on Tuesday, exposed days ago for abuse of multiple private jet flights.
Colleagues demand impunity from Sheinbaum. Protection beyond laws and proof against journalistic complaints. The party, they know, has no way to resolve their demands. Morena gets indigestion with any accountability process. Everything explodes on the leaders because there are no credible instances or processes. The institute obeyed a single will and since October 2024 they do not know if that is still valid, or dual, or if that “single” defining will has changed.
While the doubt is clarified, some feel entitled because of what they did in the times of, and for, López Obrador. Others demand recognition for having been in favor (real or false) of the president’s cause, and some more demand not only impunity when handing over their charge but support in a new and shining role; all without considering that their privilege will marginalize other Morenistas.
And, in multiple ways, that repeats in many of the internal struggles for the best candidacies of 2027. In several states — Chihuahua, for example — some Morenistas are capable of denouncing one of the frontrunners in the competition for the candidacy for the Government of that State saying he is a disguised PAN member, an heir of the PRI clique of César Duarte.
The internal affairs of Morena in several States have no channel. From small Tlaxcala to strategic Baja California, including Baja Sur, polls could prove ineffective to make the defeated resign and join. Such a scenario would reveal an error by President Sheinbaum, who has neither taken full control nor has Ariadna Montiel, the formal leader, ceded it.
By declaring that there will be no divisions or breakups, by reiterating that it is the same project as in the last six-year term, the president seeks to dispel doubts of a movement that is not willing to enter a normality where belonging to the group does not guarantee impunity. Because they prefer ambiguity where the party abuses the Government and the Government consequently indulges the entire movement without reservations.
Morena unity will only be achieved if Sheinbaum’s government renounces its obligation to enforce the law. If the president chooses that path, she will compromise the scope of her administration and, of course, collaboration with a strategic partner like the United States. Either she makes the party a party and practically takes charge of its members, or the Government will never be Government.
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