The Ceuta crisis hits Pedro Sánchez’s electoral expectations. The barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), based on 4,000 interviews conducted between September 1 and 4, shows a 2-point drop in the PSOE’s vote estimate, falling from 33% in July to 31% now.
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The series from the public institution keeps the socialists in first place, a result that most polls do not share: the average of surveys conducted by the specialized newspaper Politico assigns them 24%, four points less than the PP. But also the CIS, despite keeping them in the lead, brings bad news for the PSOE, which loses ground compared to the Popular Party. If in July the difference in their favor was 7.9 points (33% to 25.1%), now it is 5.5 (31% to 25.5%). This means that, in the midst of a crisis that is severely punishing the Government, the PP only rises by four tenths.
The biggest rise, according to the CIS, is for Vox, which increases by 1.3 points, from 15.3% to 16.6%. Santiago Abascal’s party, which has the toughest discourse against immigration, thus emerges as the main electoral beneficiary of the Ceuta crisis, in line with what 40dB detected.
In the alternative left space, Podemos gains weight compared to Sumar, although Ione Belarra’s party remains behind. The forces that made up Sumar in 2023 — except Podemos — drop from 6.1% to 5.7%. Podemos rises from 2.5% to 3.7% in a survey conducted before Irene Montero’s presentation as a candidate for the general elections.
Together, both forces total 9.4 points. Together, in 2023, they summed 12.3%. As for Sumar, it is still unclear what form it will finally take, nor is its candidate known, nor its brand, nor how many of the forces it included in 2023 it will manage to unite now under its platform. The resistance of this political space was key after the November 2019 and July 2023 general elections to ensure investiture majorities led by the PSOE and the formation of progressive governments.
Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF) falls from 2.6% to 1.8% of the vote, reducing its expectations of gaining representation in the Congress of Deputies. The party led by the ultra agitator Alvise Pérez, who won three MEPs in 2024, has already failed in its attempts to enter the regional parliaments of Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalusia.
In the right-wing bloc, the PP and Vox add up to 42.1 points — 43.9 if SALF is included — compared to 40.4 points for PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
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