New war in the MAGA world. The three months since the United States and Israel attacked Iran have served to show the seams in the Make America Great Again movement. The most isolationist sector demanded that President Donald Trump take care of the problems of Americans and forget about the very costly wars in unknown places. The leading exponent of that faction was Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who went from being a staunch defender of Trump to one of his biggest critics and ended up leaving her seat.
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Now, the proximity of an agreement with Tehran, which the White House already sees within reach, opens a new front in the elephant party. Supporters of the hardline in foreign policy see in this pact, which if confirmed would include the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds, an unforgivable concession by Washington. They consider that if the details that are gradually becoming known are fulfilled, the United States would leave the war without having achieved any of the major objectives for which it embarked on this campaign. And that the Iranian regime would be even stronger than before. Trump and his spokespeople have already attacked these critical voices.
One of the clearest has been Steven Cheung, White House communications director. “Mike Pompeo has no fucking idea what he’s talking about. He should shut his stupid mouth and leave the real work to the professionals. He is not aware of anything that is happening,” Cheung responded to the former Secretary of State during Trump’s first term.
Pompeo, who led U.S. diplomacy between 2018 and 2021, had lashed out in a message on X against the draft agreement, which he considers very similar to the nuclear pact closed in 2015 by Democrat Barack Obama. As soon as he won his first elections, Trump unilaterally abandoned that agreement. Since then, he has not missed an opportunity to define it as a disaster for his country. Well, eight years after Trump took that step, the man who directed his foreign policy considers that what he is doing is very similar. And he sums it up like this: “Paying the Revolutionary Guard to develop a weapons of mass destruction program and terrorize the world.”
That comparison gets on Trump’s nerves. “I don’t make deals like that,” he has responded on his social network, Truth.
Not only former Republican Administration officials criticize what is being negotiated. Senators as relevant—and in some cases very close to Trump—as Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Roger Wicker, or Thom Tillis have also pointed out the negative consequences for the United States of what is being negotiated. The president, as usual, has reacted by dismissing any criticism: “I laugh at all the Democrats and fools who know nothing about the possible deal I am making with Iran,” he wrote. The final result, says the president, “will be either a big and magnificent deal or it won’t be.” “These people should go home and rest, they do nothing but create division. In other words, they are losers!” he wrote.
But these arguments do not convince some Republicans. “If the result of all this is an Iranian regime still led by Islamists who shout ‘death to America,’ that now receives billions of dollars, that can enrich uranium, that develops nuclear weapons and that has effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, then the result is disastrous,” wrote Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
Lindsey Graham, from South Carolina and very close to Trump, considers that what this agreement would prove is that Iran is capable of “terrorizing” whenever it wants in the Strait of Hormuz, which represents “a major shift in the balance of power in the region and, over time, a nightmare for Israel.” “Also, if these perceptions are correct, one wonders why the war started,” he adds.
“Everything achieved by Operation Epic Fury would have been in vain!” opines Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. These criticisms may be right. But what many analysts and politicians who believe negotiation is the lesser evil argue is that continuing a long, costly war with uncertain results would be much more damaging than a bad deal.
It is not expected that this new MAGA war will end in an open confrontation against Trump. As he has shown on other occasions, the president has a tight grip on the party. And this almost omnipotent power is not changed by the fact that there are some dissenting voices on some aspects. Also, as recent primaries like those held in Louisiana and Kentucky are showing, the party base responds faithfully to everything Trump wants. In those territories, candidates who dared to oppose the boss have lost their positions, with the invaluable help of very aggressive campaigns by the president supporting rivals of recognized Trumpist obedience.
60-day extension
Although there are details to be clarified and Iranian negotiators do not seem to be in as much of a hurry as the Americans, Washington trusts in pushing the agreement through. The greatest benefit it would obtain would be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, in exchange, would achieve the end of sanctions and the unblocking of frozen assets. Also, its nuclear program would not be automatically limited, but a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire would be established, during which a solution to the nuclear conflict would be negotiated.
Meanwhile, Trump tries to push Arab and Muslim countries to get involved in the agreement. And he takes the opportunity to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and its Arab and Muslim neighbors. This is an old project that his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, also sought earnestly. Trump now wants to get something out of it for his ally Israel, which would be totally sidelined in a hypothetical peace with Iran. In this context, the President of the United States has requested Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan to join the so-called Abraham Accords to normalize their relations with Israel.
According to information that has leaked, Pakistan has rejected the proposal. And none of the other countries have publicly reacted. But it seems difficult that this rapprochement will occur after the impact caused in their populations by the massacres and famines in Gaza following Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Trump said on Saturday that he had spoken with the leaders of these countries, as well as those of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain: they are signatories of the Abraham Accords.
“I urgently request that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords and that, if Iran signs its agreement with me, in my capacity as President of the United States, it would be an honor to also have their participation in this unparalleled global coalition,” Trump wrote on Truth.
