The partners of the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) are in crisis. The United States and Canada have escalated the trade war in recent days by imposing mutual tariffs and leaving the negotiations about the future of the agreement they share with Mexico in uncertainty. The Latin American country has not been part of the convoluted talks but remains on edge about how the tension between Washington and Ottawa may affect its own negotiations with the Donald Trump Administration and, ultimately, the economic impact that the Republican’s enmity with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will have. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has avoided going in-depth into the rift between the United States and Canada but has urgently sent the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, to Washington. “I am optimistic that an agreement can be reached,” the president mentioned in her Monday press conference.
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Ebrard’s mission is to gauge the mood within Trump’s team but also to ensure securing a new agreement on the tariffs that the U.S. government maintains on goods coming from Mexico: 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as 25% on automobiles and auto parts. “We have been working for over a year now to see how these tariffs can be reduced,” the president assured. That was the same goal that the Canadian negotiating team had last week, which was shattered by more aggressive tariffs and has, for now, frozen talks between Washington and Ottawa.
Since the beginning of 2026, the Trump Administration had started tentative talks with Mexico to assess the future of the USMCA, ahead of the renewal deadline set for July 1. In June, Mexico and the United States began a series of bilateral negotiation rounds to share the points of the trade agreement they seek to modify. Canada announced it would have its own talks with the United States at another time. Finally, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced at the last moment that it would not extend the treaty and would carry out annual reviews of its contents with the partners. Ebrard then commented that Washington had a list of 14 issues to review with Mexico City, so the negotiation rounds would continue.
The Trump government has prioritized bilateral negotiations arguing that the issues concerning Canada and Mexico are not necessarily the same. Furthermore, it has avoided setting a date for a possible trilateral meeting. Mexico has the next round scheduled for September in the U.S. capital. From the perspective of some analysts, Mexico has gained more benefits from these meetings by being more consistent and blurring the commercial lines to address U.S. requests on other topics. “Mexico has forged a solid reputation on various fronts, such as security, immigration, drug trafficking, and imposing limits on politicians with alleged links to criminal organizations, which could help it face this difficult stage of the negotiations,” points out an analysis by Bradesco.
The alliance that Sheinbaum and Carney sealed a year ago to push forward the USMCA does not seem to have suffered damage after the rift between Canada and the United States. The Canadian Prime Minister called the Mexican president on the eve of the closure of his talks with Washington. “They emphasized the importance of renewing the Agreement between Canada, the United States, and Mexico as soon as possible to provide greater certainty to North American businesses and workers,” the prime minister’s office published Thursday night about the call, without giving details on whether the battle between Canada and the United States was part of the conversation. Throughout the year, Canada and Mexico have avoided getting in each other’s way to boost the USMCA. However, Ottawa has suffered more pressure from Trump, who has directly attacked the country and its leaders. “Canada has been cheating the United States for years,” was his most recent insult.
Sheinbaum, on the other hand, has had numerous phone calls with the Republican, who has done nothing but praise her and grant some concessions. Mexico’s progress in the negotiations does not seem to have damaged the relationship with Canada. “Mexico has been a reliable partner at all times, and will probably advocate for Canada if the opportunity arises, but it is unlikely to become a martyr for its cause,” adds the Bradesco analysis. The September round of talks and the negotiations on sectoral tariffs in the coming days will provide evidence of the impact that the tension between the two northern partners will have on the future of the USMCA. “We have a very good position because, if you average everything we export, we have some of the lowest tariffs of any country in the world. We have achieved that thanks to communication, negotiation, and the joint work of the team that has been going to the United States,” Sheinbaum mentioned.
