The National Intelligence Service of South Korea (NIS) informed a group of lawmakers this Tuesday that there are “signs of dialogue” between the United States and North Korea and that a new summit between their leaders, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, could take place “at any time.” However, the agency admitted that it has not been able to confirm concrete contacts between Washington and Pyongyang. It also did not specify the basis of its analysis, according to the South Korean news agency Yonhap.
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The possible thaw coincides with the attempts, so far unsuccessful, of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to reopen inter-Korean dialogue and replace the 1953 armistice with a peace regime. The NIS has acknowledged, however, that these initiatives have also not allowed contact to be established with the neighboring country. North Korea constitutionally recognizes South Korea as a separate state and has abandoned the goal of unification.
“Regarding a summit between the United States and North Korea, we must consider that it can happen at any time,” Youn Kun-young, a lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Party, told the press. Along with Yoo Yeong-ha, from the conservative People Power Party, he summarized the conclusions of the closed-door session that the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee held with the NIS.
The NIS’s assessment of the alleged rapprochement between Washington and Pyongyang comes after Trump insisted on his desire to meet with Kim this year. In mid-August, the Republican invoked his “very good relationship” with the North Korean to order — hours before they began — a “substantial” reduction of the military maneuvers that the United States and South Korea conduct every summer. The exercises ended six days earlier than planned and forced a cutback of operations on the ground. Trump argued that they were too costly and sent an “inappropriate and hostile” signal to Pyongyang, which, according to the U.S. president, had behaved “respectfully and without threatening intentions” since his return to the White House.
Pyongyang’s public response has been calculatedly ambiguous. Kim Yo-jong, the leader’s sister and one of the most influential figures in his circle, described the personal relationship between Kim and Trump as “excellent,” but denied a diplomatic rapprochement and warned that the reduction of maneuvers should not be presented as a goodwill gesture. This Monday, a day before the NIS report, a spokesperson for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. “hostile” policy remains intact, promised that Pyongyang will continue strengthening its nuclear arsenal, and maintained that it is “useless” to expect a détente while Washington maintains denuclearization as its goal, according to the state agency KCNA.
The main obstacle remains, therefore, the same one that caused the Hanoi summit to fail in 2019. Washington officially advocates the complete denuclearization of the peninsula, while Pyongyang refuses to negotiate its atomic arsenal. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that North Korea may have assembled about 60 nuclear warheads and possesses fissile material to manufacture at least 30 more. Several experts consulted by this newspaper consider that Kim would arrive at the hypothetical meeting with Trump with more negotiating leverage than in the three meetings held between 2018 and 2019, thanks to his new military alliance with Russia and because his relationship with China has been reestablished.
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Amid the alleged probes, the NIS considers the possibility that Pyongyang will soon send more troops to fight on the Russian front of the Ukraine war to be “markedly low,” although it warns that the situation may change. This assessment nuances that offered just over a week ago by South Korean military intelligence, which detected preparations for possible reinforcements but no movement indicating an imminent deployment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in August that Pyongyang had decided to mobilize between 30,000 and 50,000 additional soldiers, an estimate that Kim Yo-jong called “unfounded.” Since 2024, about 15,000 North Korean troops have fought in the Russian region of Kursk.
A possible successor
On the other hand, in this Tuesday’s appearance, the NIS reiterated its assessment of Ju-ae, the leader’s most beloved daughter. The agency believes that the teenager is “in the phase of being designated successor” and that her increasing appearance in state media seeks to present her to North Koreans as a future leader. The NIS reached this conclusion in February, and its director, Lee Jong-seok, stated in April that it was based on “credible” intelligence information.
Since the teenager was first seen in November 2022 during the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, her image has appeared in a measured way, until this year, when she became a regular part of the choreographed power scenery. Pyongyang has never confirmed her name or age (all are assumptions) nor formally announced a succession plan. It is also not known for certain how many children Kim has, although it is believed to be three and Ju-ae is the middle child, who would be around 13 years old. She is the only one whose photos have been published.
This year, she has been seen publicly paying tribute to her grandfather and great-grandfather, at political and military events, firing a weapon, and driving a tank. Since 2023, the official press refers to her with the term hyangdo, which can be translated as “guide” or “leading guide,” a designation historically reserved for figures with ideological or political authority within the system.
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