The highest temperature ever recorded in Spain’s history is 47.6 °C, which occurred on August 14, 2021, in La Rambla (Córdoba). This is according to the official measurement systems of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Aemet), always following the same criteria, and in places not directly exposed to the sun, as there may be other records that are not valid. After two heat waves so far this summer and with the progressive increase in scorching days, the question is: how close is Spain to a 50-degree record?
Read more The Five Repair Languages or Why Saying «I’m Sorry» Sometimes Isn’t Enough
“We must prepare for more extreme scenarios,” emphasizes Elena Pita, director of the Spanish Office of Climate Change, who highlights the importance of thinking ahead to anticipate problems that are not so foreseeable today. As has already been proven, heat has many derived effects: from serious health consequences to the intensification of forest fires.
In the case of Spain, according to Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for Aemet, “seeing that the frequency and intensity of heat waves is increasing, it is not unlikely that in the coming years or decades, during an intense heat peak, a temperature of 50 degrees could be reached.”
The official world record for the highest temperature stands at 56.7 degrees, measured on July 10, 1913, in Death Valley (California, USA). However, there are doubts about this record. At the same time, there are other more recent measurements to be validated also in Death Valley reaching 54.4 degrees on August 16, 2020, and July 9, 2021. In Europe, the highest mark is 48.8° verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Sicily (Italy) on August 11, 2021. But in North African countries, thermometers have indeed reached 50 degrees. In Morocco, according to , this symbolic temperature barrier was surpassed for the first time on August 11, 2023, in Agadir, setting the country’s record at 50.4 degrees.
After the havoc caused by high temperatures in Europe, these days countries like France are also wondering when this worrying mark might fall. “Global warming does not turn every summer into an apocalypse, but it increases the probability of events previously considered almost impossible,” says meteorologist Guillaume Séchet. As he stresses, regarding the French territory, “the symbolic threshold of 50 degrees still belongs to the future. But unfortunately, that future seems much less distant than we imagined just a few years ago.” For Europe as a whole, it is closer. As French climatologist Christophe Cassou from the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) points out, “it is absolutely possible to have 50 degrees on the continent; the question is not if it will happen, but when.”
Beyond the milestone of reaching a round and forceful figure, it is about preparing for temperature peaks unknown until now at these latitudes. As long as emissions continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, the trend will worsen. Precisely, in October 2023, the City Council of the French capital organized a crisis drill called “Paris at 50 degrees” in two districts of the city (the 13th and 19th) to evaluate the response to an extreme heat wave. The exercise was based on scientific work that considers a scenario of 50° peaks in the French metropolis unlikely in the first half of the century, but the possibility of it happening exceptionally increases from 2050 if the international climate commitments agreed upon in this same city in 2015 are not met.
Read more The enigma Victoria Abril: Spain did not know what to do with the best actress of her generation
According to , facing these extreme temperatures it is essential to strengthen the culture of risk to better prepare and increase urban resilience through the development of solidarity and proximity networks that promote mutual aid. Furthermore, the work highlights the interest of the exercise itself to draw attention to the need to anticipate these hellish heat events. The Barcelona City Council has announced a similar drill to test how to face a 50-degree peak in the city for the first quarter of 2027.
The director of the Spanish Office of Climate Change considers that the possibility of these more extreme scenarios requires stress tests and protocols to analyze how they would affect critical infrastructures or services. Additionally, she also believes it is necessary to assess the consequences on health and the economy. “The urban planning part is also very important because many prevention measures are associated with how to manage the most vulnerable housing,” she highlights. As she stresses, the Spanish Office of Climate Change provides the protocols and information, but then it is each locality that must prepare for a more extreme climate.
As meteorologist Del Campo details, “if 50 degrees are reached in Spain, it will be sporadic and very likely in some of the warmest localities in our country, in points of the Guadalquivir Valley, even the Lower Guadiana, or in summer westerly wind situations, perhaps in the interior of Mediterranean regions, although these, of course, are all assumptions.”
What is not in doubt is the increase in maximum temperatures in Spain. According to the Aemet spokesperson, if we focus on summer, this increase is about three tenths of a degree per decade in maximum temperatures. “So since the 1960s, the average maximum temperature nationwide has practically risen about two degrees,” he points out.
Regarding future predictions, the regionalized scenarios developed by Aemet consider that, under an intermediate emissions framework, by mid-century the average summer maximum temperature could rise about 2 degrees more compared to the current temperature. “If we are now saying it has risen about 2 degrees more or less in 65 years, then in about 30-40 years the average summer maximum temperature in Spain could rise another 2 degrees,” he indicates. With a high emissions scenario, the difference would be greater. By mid-century, the average summer maximum temperature could rise about 3, even 4 degrees more. “We would already be entering extremely hot summers because we would have temperatures 3 degrees higher than current ones, which are already 2 degrees higher than those in the 1970s and 80s,” warns the meteorologist.
